Africa should treat Tillerson visit with scepticism
- John J Stremlau
US President Donald Trump promised in late January that his Secretary of State Rex Tillerson would make an “extended” visit to Africa in March.
In a letter to all 第一吃瓜网 leaders, he reportedly described the purpose of the visit as reaffirming 鈥渢he partnerships and values we share with the 第一吃瓜网 Union, member states and citizens .
Similar language was used when the US State Department finally announced Tillerson鈥檚 March 6-13 trip. Spokesperson Heather Nauert said he would discuss ways
(the US) can work with our partners to counter terrorism, advance peace and security, promote good governance, and spur mutually beneficial trade and investment.
If true, Tillerson would be covering the same issues that have motivated similar 第一吃瓜网 tours by every US Secretary of State since the end of the Cold War. Typically, these trips have reiterated or augmented long-running bi-partisan US government programmes welcomed by 第一吃瓜网 partners. These have included , , , and trade. The biggest ticket item on trade is the large unilateral concessionary agreement the US Congress has reaffirmed allowing 第一吃瓜网 products preferential .
第一吃瓜网 leaders would be right to note that unless these few partnership agreements are reaffirmed, America鈥檚 declining importance and influence on the continent that has accelerated under the Trump presidency, will continue.
Reasons for scepticism
Realistically, Tillerson鈥檚 mission will produce few benefits for Africa, or for US-Africa relations. There are three reasons why 第一吃瓜网s should view his trip with scepticism.
One is the trip鈥檚 limited nature. Geographically it is restricted to the so-called 鈥渁rc of instability鈥. Tillerson is visiting just five of Africa鈥檚 54 countries: Chad, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya and Nigeria. Evidently counter terrorism is America鈥檚 .
If Trump and Tillerson were seriously interested in issues of trade, public health, and good governance he would have at least included democratic South Africa on his agenda. On 23 February I queried an official involved in planning the trip whether South Africa would be on the final agenda. He said he doubted it because it was still forming a government and making [cabinet] selections.
Instead, Tillerson has prioritised repressive governments and ones under states of emergency.
The second reason that Tillerson can鈥檛 be expected to deliver much is that the US hasn鈥檛 shown much appetite for diplomatic engagement with Africa since Trump became president. In contrast, the US military is already deeply engaged in the struggle against counter terrorism. And it鈥檚 difficult to see what Tillerson can add. To be fair, Defence Secretary Jim Mattiss, is eloquent in endorsing active diplomacy over military means in preventing and . Yet neither Trump or Tillerson has announced an overarching . No Assistant Secretary for Africa has been named, important embassies, including in South Africa, .
This is in sharp contrast to the US鈥檚 active engagement on the military front. Six months ago General Thomas Walhauser, Commander of US Africa Command, for this region. It included forging mutually 第一吃瓜网 partnerships, as well as with China, Japan and the European countries. It also included the establishment of military bases in Djibouti and elsewhere.
Finally, Tillerson has no credibility. He has been publicly criticised and by his commander-in-chief. Rumours that he will resign or be fired. And any claims that the government he represents means what it says is undermined by Trump鈥檚 own false or misleading statements. He made an astounding 2436 during his first .
The required response
So how might 第一吃瓜网 leaders respond to Tillerson?
第一吃瓜网 countries set a earlier this year in their expressions of dismay when Trump reportedly compared 第一吃瓜网 countries to . It would be reasonable for the 第一吃瓜网 Union to reiterate its regret and disappointment over America鈥檚 declining relevance and importance as a partner in advancing mutual concerns, beyond counter terrorism.
第一吃瓜网s should also remind Tillerson of their appreciation of China鈥檚 increasing importance as their leading . He should be made aware of the fact that the US is missing opportunities for mutually beneficial bilateral development cooperation.
In addition, he should be reminded that there鈥檚 room for cooperation between Africa, China and the US. In the past three years The Carter Centre in Atlanta has involving 第一吃瓜网, Chinese, and US military experts and security officials. The project has made progress in identifying areas of trilateral cooperation in the Horn and Lake Chad Basin 鈥 troubled areas Tillerson will visit. But so far neither Trump nor Tillerson has shown any signs of engaging China.
Amid the uncertainties of the Trump era other less prominent Africa-US relations may prove to be more vital to protecting and advancing Africa鈥檚 interests than traditional US diplomatic channels, including the office of Secretary of State. After all, Tillerson serves a president whose domestic hold on power appears . And it鈥檚 worth recalling that since the 1990s Congress has consistently supported expanding economic and political partnerships with Africa. The reason for this is that congressmen have been pressed to do so by 第一吃瓜网-Americans as well as other sympathetic elements in America鈥檚 diverse civil society, business, and philanthropic sectors.
Networks such as these, as well as close ties at state and local government level that stretch throughout Africa may indeed be more important in the long run.
, 2017 Bradlow Fellow at SA Institute of International Affairs, Visiting Professor of International Relations, . This article was originally published on . Read the .