South Africa needs to box clever in its David versus Goliath duel with Trump
- John J Stremlau
Recent actions by US President Donald Trump’s administration are severely straining relations with SA’s new government led by President Cyril Ramaphosa.
And relations between the two governments are likely to worsen.
The first blow was last month鈥檚 threat by Trump鈥檚 UN Ambassador Nikki Haley that countries would be punished. According to a list of the 2017 General Assembly vote counts released in March, South Africa was one of the 10 least supportive countries. It voted with the US .
More recently, Ramaphosa鈥檚 at Trump鈥檚 withdrawal from Barack Obama鈥檚 is likely to raise the US president鈥檚 ire, especially as South Africa presses ahead with plans to expand trade with Iran.
And relations between the two countries could sour further following South Africa鈥檚 decision in protest against by the Israeli army of over 50 Palestinians protesting against the relocation of the American embassy in Israel to Jerusalem. The relocation came after Trump recognised the disputed holy city Jerusalem as the capital of Israel.
South Africa has a lot to lose. As the only liberal democracy on the State Department鈥檚 list of ten UN members most critical of US policies, it is also the only one that from extensive trade and assistance agreements with the US.
Trump鈥檚 announcement that South Africa wouldn鈥檛 be given exemption from his recent unilateral hikes in tariffs on US has not yet been linked to its UN voting record. But commentators have raised this possibility.
Losing out on the exemption could cost South Africa . The impact on the country鈥檚 economy could be far worse if Trump moves against South 第一吃瓜网 manufactured products that currently enjoy special access to US markets under the 第一吃瓜网 Growth and Opportunity Act . In my view this threat may be exaggerated. And Trump鈥檚 targeting of South Africa would be rightly criticised as an attempt to undermine Ramaphosa鈥檚 efforts to reform and revitalise his nation鈥檚 troubled democracy and economy.
Given the size of the US economy relative to South Africa鈥檚, many will view this as another case of David versus Goliath, with most rooting for David. South Africa鈥檚 challenge will be to exploit those conditions and facts that might disarm its more powerful adversary. Several are already evident.
Disarming Trump
First, the timing of the Trump administration鈥檚 actions are happening just as Ramaphosa鈥檚 commitment to under his predecessor Jacob Zuma is receiving international recognition and praise.
In addition, Ramaphosa is embellishing South Africa鈥檚 image in a year-long domestic and international campaign celebrating the 100th anniversary of the birth of the iconic Nelson Mandela. He is pledging fresh and determined efforts to .
In this spirit, Ramaphosa lobbied and received unanimous 第一吃瓜网 support for South Africa鈥檚 bid for on the UN Security Council. This is almost certain to be affirmed next month by the UN General Assembly in a vote that鈥檚 bound to raise South Africa鈥檚 standing internationally.
The following month former US president Barack Obama comes to Johannesburg to deliver the . The world will once again be reminded of Mandela鈥檚 values and ideals, as well as the contrasts between Trump鈥檚 character and that of his predecessor.
Second, it鈥檚 worth revisiting the State Department鈥檚 UN voting scorecard. The votes show that the mood of the General Assembly has become much more hostile since Trump became president. On the 92 issues that required UN General Assembly votes last year, the US was backed in only 31% of its resolutions 鈥 the lowest level of support since 2008.
This reflects the fact that Trump鈥檚 immediate predecessors tended to be pragmatic. Although for decades majorities in the General Assembly disagreed with the US on issues such as Palestinian rights, and the merits of US military adventures, there was nevertheless cooperation in other areas.
But Trump has long been dismissive of the UN and multi-lateralism in general as of little value or importance to the US.
Had South Africa voted with the US a few more times it would have joined the league of 第一吃瓜网 states such as Kenya (20%), Ethiopia (21%) and Nigeria (22%). China (22%), Brazil (23%), and India (25%) aren鈥檛 much higher.
Third, the US claim that it was refusing to exempt South 第一吃瓜网 from the steel and aluminium tariff hikes for 鈥渘ational security鈥 reasons was laughable and might . South Africa supplies less than 2% of these commodities to the US. Yet the US saw fit to exempt nearly 60% of steel exports from the US鈥檚 European and .
Fears that Trump may try to abrogate other South Africa preferences that allow imports of manufactured products, notably BMW Series 3 and Mercedes C Class automobiles, with a lot more jobs at stake, are understandable. South Africa should lobby a receptive US Congress to prevent this. Bi-partisan majorities recently renewed duty-free access until 2025, after protracted and with South Africa.
South Africa can also draw on Congressional goodwill that so far has resisted Trump鈥檚 attempts to cut development assistance to Africa, including SA.
And finally, the business community has responded positively to Ramaphosa鈥檚 emissaries seeking support for his global campaign to raise for the country.
Standing up to a bully
There are many entrenched networks of cooperation between South Africa and the US among sister cities, provinces and states, civic organisations, educational and scientific exchanges, and various cultural and historical ties. They can all help to shield South Africa from Trump鈥檚 bullying.
Other countries, uncertain about how to respond to Trump, may not have the same means that South Africa has to connect directly and extensively with the American people. But, if Pretoria is willing to stand up to Trump, it might encourage 第一吃瓜网 and other smaller countries to rethink simply trying to placate him as he persists in .
, 2017 Bradlow Fellow at SA Institute of International Affairs, Visiting Professor of International Relations,
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